The latest "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee" state, "Regarding monetary policy expectations, the manager observed that market participants and respondents to the Open Market Desk Survey of Market Expectations (​Desk survey) generally expected no change in the target range of the federal funds rate at the June FOMC meeting. Market- and survey-​based measures of expected policy rates moved higher over the intermeeting period. In the Desk survey, the median of the modal paths of the federal funds rate implied no changes in the target range through the beginning of 2027 and one rate cut in the second quarter of next year. Market pricing suggested that one rate hike was priced for mid-​2027, but the manager noted that these measures were likely boosted, in part, by term premiums." They also tell us, "The manager observed that money market conditions were generally stable, although conditions softened notably early in the intermeeting period before they partially rebounded. In particular, repurchase agreement (​repo) rates dropped to 15 basis points below the interest rate on reserve balances in mid-​May. Consistent with that drop, the effective federal funds rate declined 2 basis points, the first such change since November. There was modest take-​up of the Federal Reserve'​s overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations on days when repo rates were especially low, confirming that those operations were effective in firming the floor under money market rates. Regarding the decline in repo rates early in the period, the manager noted several likely driving factors: Reserves increased following the seasonal low around the April tax date as the Treasury General Account dropped, reserve management purchases added reserves and reduced the bill supply available to the public, …