The latest "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (​FOMC) for the Fed'​s July 28-​29 Meeting tell us, "Nominal Treasury yields rose 25 to 30 basis points, driven by corresponding increases in real interest rates. Market pricing and outreach indicated that, while investors expected no action at the July FOMC meeting as a base case, the market priced in about a one-​in-​three chance of an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. At longer horizons, the market was fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by the September meeting and another one by the end of the first quarter of next year. The median respondent to the Desk survey, by contrast, expected no change in the policy rate this year or the next but expected a rate cut in early 2028." The Minutes explain, "The manager observed that money markets remained generally stable. Repurchase agreement (​repo) rates again went through a brief period of softness earlier in the period and temporarily dragged the effective federal funds rate (​EFFR) down 1 basis point. Repo rates recovered quickly, the EFFR returned to its earlier level, and money market rates generally ended the period little changed, on net, and close to the interest rate on reserve balances." They comment, "Over the intermeeting period, both the market-​implied expected path of the federal funds rate and nominal Treasury yields moved up somewhat, in part reflecting FOMC communications that were perceived as more restrictive than expected amid an economic outlook that was little changed. The market-​implied policy rate path shifted moderately higher, as did option-​implied probability distributions of short-​term interest …